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Insurance rates to remain mostly stable: FERMA panel

Pricing 'neutral' for most accounts, but pressure building

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Insurance rates to remain mostly stable: FERMA panel

STOCKHOLM—Rates for most insurance coverage will remain stable in the coming months, a panel of insurer, reinsurer and broker CEOs told the Federation of European Risk Management Assns. forum last week.

While there are various pressures that may lead to future rate hardening, for the time being rate increases likely will be limited to loss-affected areas and lines of business, they said during the biennial meeting in Stockholm.

“Rates are stable,” said Greg Case, president and CEO of Chicago-based brokerage Aon Corp.

“There is a tightening, but we are not quite at an inflection point,” Mr. Case said.

While rates in some catastrophe-hit areas or loss-prone lines of business are hardening, “overall it is pretty neutral,” said David Batchelor, CEO of Marsh Inc.'s Europe, Middle East and Africa operations.

Low interest rates, which limit investment returns, and a string of large catastrophe losses in the past year mean that there will likely be some hardening of insurance prices at some point, but it hasn't happened yet, Mr. Batchelor said.

The outcome of the upcoming Jan. 1, 2012, treaty reinsurance renewals could affect primary insurance pricing in the near future, and the current global economic turmoil could affect certain areas of insurance coverage, such as financial lines, he noted.

In some areas, particularly emerging markets such as China, rates have continued to decrease as much as 20%, noted Rory MacLeay, managing director of the international network of London-based brokerage Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group P.L.C.

With interest rates likely to remain low for several years, insurance rates will have to increase at some point, said Torbjörn Magnusson, president and CEO of If P&C Insurance Co. in Stockholm. “But we are in flux at the moment,” he said.

It is unlikely that there will be a single driver that will lead to rate increases, said August Pröbstl, Munich-based head of the corporate insurance partner division of Munich Reinsurance Co. But current conditions mean that underwriters have to increase their discipline in choosing which risks to underwrite, he noted.

“A cocktail of ingredients make up a cycle change,” noted Lex Baugh, London-based CEO of Chartis Inc.'s European operations.

Currently, areas that are seeing “minihardening” include the airline business and catastrophe-exposed property, he said. These changes relieve some of the pressure for a more general hardening of insurance rates and lead to a “dampening of the overall cycle,” he said.

The cycle is not dead, Mr. Baugh said, “but maybe it looks different than it did in the past.”

The CEOs said they were not overly concerned about the effect that a global economic slowdown—and particularly the sovereign debt crisis affecting certain areas of Europe—would have on insurers' performance. But they did say it is imperative that insurers and brokers support their clients through what likely will be a difficult economic time.

Insurers actively have “derisked” their balance sheets and reduced their exposure to sovereign debt, noted Mr. Pröbstl.

But, said Mr. Baugh, the property/casualty insurance industry could face exposures if a large number of insurers choose to invest similarly and those investments do not perform well. Insurers need to invest in high-grade bonds, which currently are those issued by financial institutions, he said.

If contagion from the debt crisis spreads beyond Greece and affects those institutions, then insurers could be heavily exposed to that risk, he said.

“Our anxiety is about the impact on our clients,” said Mr. Case. “No matter what your opinion is on the economy, there is no doubt that risks are increasing, interconnectedness is increasing and risk awareness has increased,” he said.

“What you as risk managers do every day is becoming more and more important,” Mr. Case said.

Austerity measures across Europe could affect buyers' own companies, said Mr. Batchelor. For example, premium taxes could be increased to help governments increase their revenue, he said.

Jeff Moghrabi, country manager for France for ACE Ltd., said it is important to “manage risks not fear.”

At the end of FERMA's Oct. 2-5 forum, Jorge Luzzi, group risk management director for Pirelli S.p.A.'s global operations, succeeded Peter den Dekker as president of the association.

Mr. Luzzi said his three aims for his presidency are “communication, interaction and innovation.”

The association's next forum in 2013 will be held in Masstricht, Netherlands.

A seminar will be held next fall in either London or Paris, Mr. Luzzi said.