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COMMENTARY: Perfect storm for climate change

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Speaking to a lunchtime audience a couple of weeks ago at the annual RIMS Canada conference in Ottawa, Ontario, David Phillips, senior climatologist at Environment Canada, the Canadian government's Department of the Environment, put an interesting twist on a well-worn adage about the weather.

Playing off the notion that everyone talks about the weather but nobody does anything about it, Mr. Phillips suggested that climate “is sort of the antithesis of the weather.” In the case of climate, he said, “We change it, but we don't talk about it.”

While there are, of course, still some who resist the notion of climate change, Mr. Phillips is emphatically not among them. “How do we know that climate change is an issue?” he asked RIMS Canada conference attendees. “Because the data tell us.”

“Climate change is not about a belief. It is not about a hunch or a feeling,” said the climatologist. “It's about an accumulation of data about the effects on the climate system.”

Looking at that data, it's pretty clear that weather events have been getting more extreme, and extreme weather events are occurring with greater frequency. This year, for example, has seen a record-setting tornado season in the United States with outbreaks in April and May accounting for nearly $10 billion in insured losses, along with floods in Australia and floods in the northeastern United States resulting from Hurricane Irene.

In Canada and globally, the number of weather-related disasters has increased dramatically in the past several decades, Mr. Phillips noted. “Over 90% of natural disasters are weather- and water-related events, and in Canada weather-related losses now cost insurers more than fires,” he said.

Not only are weather events becoming more extreme, the pace of climate change is beginning to accelerate, Mr. Phillips said. “What used to change in a century is now changing in a decade.”

So why is all this happening? Most climatologists say the planet is warming, Mr. Phillips said, and part of that warming is the result of human activity.

And the upshot for risk managers?

“The new norm is expect the unexpected, with a good serving of extremes from one end of the pendulum to the other,” Mr. Phillips said. “The big challenge for risk managers is to try to manage better in a more variable climate.”

Beyond reducing our fossil fuel consumption, Mr. Phillips said it's necessary to learn to adapt to changing circumstances. That includes designing more resilient neighborhoods and communities, considering the impact of climate change on any structures designed to last more than 20 years; reviewing, revising and enforcing building codes; and relocating critical facilities where necessary.

So with all these causes for concern, why isn't there more talk about climate change? “Climate change doesn't present any clear and present danger,” Mr. Phillips said. “There's no Pearl Harbor in climate change.”

But, he cautioned, “The reality, though, is climate change is here.”