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Aon Benfield sees flat U.S. property catastrophe rates in 2011, barring major event

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CHICAGO—Aon Benfield Inc. says it has achieved flat to decreasing pricing on June and July renewals of clients' U.S. reinsurance programs and expects flat property catastrophe pricing for the rest of the year—barring a major catastrophe.

Contract renewals brought meaningful reinsurance rate increases to regions affected by major catastrophes so far this year, including the March earthquake and tsunami in Japan and the February earthquake in New Zealand, the reinsurance arm of Chicago-based brokerage Aon Corp. said Wednesday.

“There was real debate in the approach to the June and July renewal periods about whether Western European and U.S. insurers should pay more for their catastrophe capacity due to the significant loss activity seen in countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Japan,” Aon Benfield Analytics Chairman Bryon Ehrhart said in a statement. “Based on our extensive analytical work, and the work we have undertaken on the ground in affected regions to achieve the most comprehensive perspective on the losses, we believed that these insurers should not pay more.”

Rates up in several regions

New Zealand property catastrophe reinsurance pricing increased more than 100% for June renewals due to large and still uncertain losses from a series of events in Christchurch, Aon Benfield said. However, clients' pricing for property cat reinsurance renewals were flat to 5% lower in areas less affected by catastrophes, it said.

Japanese programs renewed with price increases ranging from 30% to 50%, and Australian programs renewed with price increases ranging from 15% to 70%, Aon Benfield said.

Aon Benfield, which said clients' June and July renewal prices were flat to 5% less, forecasts that pricing of U.S. property catastrophe renewals for the rest of the year will be flat, assuming there are no major catastrophe losses.

But it also noted that with reinsured loss experience so far, the reinsurance market will be more sensitive to additional losses this year than it was last year.

Aon Benfield's Reinsurance Market Outlook is available at www.aon.com.