The economy may be a factor in a spike in worker disability claims as employees who held back out of fear of losing their jobs after the recession began may now feel more confident as the economy begins to stabilize, several observers said.

It is too early to tell, however, whether a trend is under way, especially because volatility in filing disability claims is common, consultants, insurers and employers agree.

But consultants advising self-insured clients say they are seeing anecdotal evidence that some employers are seeing an uptick in disability claims after a decline in the rate of filings once the recession began in late 2007.

Employees that are taking such leave now, however, tend to make sure their jobs are protected by their disability status or by laws such as the Family and Medical Leave Act, said Karen English, a partner at Spring Consulting Group L.L.C. in Boston.

“People were saying, "I better be at my desk because I don't want to be laid off,'” Ms. English said. “Now there is a slight variation of, "I still better be at my desk or I might lose my job, but if I am out and it's protected for a certain amount of time, then I can do it.'”

A slight increase in behavioral health-related claims may be driven by employers' need to squeeze more productivity out of smaller workforces, said Kenneth Cope, absence management practice leader for Hewitt Associates Inc. in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

“You couple that with the economic challenges out there for most people and you start building the case to see there is a good opportunity that that is taking place,” Mr. Cope said.

Employers also are seeing an increase in workers taking FMLA leaves, said Mary Tavarozzi, North American practice leader for absence and disability management consulting at Towers Watson & Co. in Tampa, Fla.

“We went through a brief period where requests for FMLA, and particularly intermittent time off, slowed,” Ms. Tavarozzi said. “But what I am hearing from my clients and seeing in the early 2010 data is that FMLA leaves are going way up again. I think that is definitely a sign people are feeling their job is secure.”

Several disability insurers that reported increased claims incidence during this year's second quarter emphasized in calls with stock analysts that there is no evidence of a trend or that the economy caused the increase.

For example, Unum Group, the nation's largest disability insurer, told analysts during an Aug. 4 call that a “slightly higher” claims incidence it experienced for the second quarter over the first quarter is “within normal volatility.”

But Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. reported that its disability experience shows that claims could be rising to normal levels after dropping.

“The industry is experiencing higher disability claims frequency and we saw similar trends in the second quarter,” Christopher J. Swift, Hartford's chief financial officer, told analysts on Aug. 5. “We have closely reviewed our disability claims experience and the increased claims frequency is not correlated with any industry or plant size. This suggests that the overall frequencies may be returning to historical levels.”

However, several observers said that only certain industries are affected.

The retail industry, for example, has seen claims rise after decreases shortly after the recession's start, said Greg Vandam, general manager of group benefit claims at Liberty Mutual Group in Boston.

The disability insurance industry is “starting to see an increase,” Mr. Vandam said. “Certain segments are starting to climb back up.”

There also were reports of disability claim increases in the education and manufacturing industries, sources said.

Historically, recessions cause spikes in short- and long-term disability claims as workers who fear losing employer-sponsored health coverage along with their jobs pursue elective surgeries and other medical treatments they otherwise would have postponed, observers said.

But the current ailing economy may have suppressed claims, which helped insurers reduce their pricing to compete for employers' business, said Jeff Schuh, vp and actuary for group disability at Reinsurance Group of America Inc.'s U.S. group reinsurance practice in Minneapolis.

After the recession commenced, some insurers “actually had their best year ever” because long-term disability claims declined instead of increasing as expected, Mr. Schuh said.

The recession, considered the worst since the Great Depression, may have pushed workers to behave differently than past economic downturns, several observers agreed.

With many workers' mortgages underwater and their 401(k) investments down substantially, they may have thought it was better during the current economy to remain at work instead of risking losing jobs while out on a disability claim, Mr. Schuh said.

“I think their financial safety net was ripped away and they felt a little bare,” Mr. Schuh said.

Industry data does not exist to support the theory that the recession initially caused a drop in claims, Mr. Vandam said. But there is a general industry belief that the theory holds true, he added.

“What the insurance industry observed in this recession is that it behaved very differently from any other in that the spike (in disability claims) didn't come,” Mr. Vandam said. “In this recession which was so deep and so scary...people were choosing not to have those elective surgeries.”