Potential damage from wind, storm surge and inland flooding in Caribbean countries could increase economic losses to between 2% to 9% of gross domestic product by 2030, according to preliminary results of a study published by the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility.

Under current climactic and economic conditions, the potential for such losses ranges from 1% to 6% of annual GDP, according to the results, released Wednesday.

The study, published by the catastrophe risk pool for 16 Caribbean nations, said wind would remain the single largest contributor to the increase.

“Economic growth is typically the greatest driver of the rise in expected loss, accounting for some 60% of the increase in all countries, with the exception of Jamaica, where it accounts for around 40%,” says the study.

However, some countries can avoid up to 90% of the expected damage by implementing cost-effective adaptation measures including risk mitigation, such as building dikes and retrofitting buildings, and risk transfer solutions including catastrophic risk insurance, the study says.

There will be significant differences among countries, however, which will be driven by factors including buildings' values and the importance of coastal flooding and storm surge, says the study, which notes that the latter “can be mitigated more cost-effectively than wind hazard.” The study's results “illustrate the importance of a balanced portfolio of measures in each country,” it states.

The study's preliminary results, which are supported by analytics provided by Swiss Reinsurance Co. Ltd., are available online at www.ccrif.org. Findings from the study will be featured along with additional results in a forthcoming Swiss Re publication on climate adaptation scheduled for September.

Earlier this year, the CCRIF, with a research organization, announced its plans to launch a regional rainfall model to better manage the risks of extreme rainfall.