For centuries, seafaring European explorers sought a Northwest Passage through the Arctic as a shortcut to riches in the Orient. New research findings suggest that dream is becoming a reality.

The Catlin Arctic Survey, conducted earlier this year under the sponsorship of Catlin Group Ltd., took about 6,000 measurements of Arctic sea ice to gather data for scientists about whether, and to what degree, the sea ice is melting. Well, the results have been analyzed and released Oct. 15. The news is not good.

According to Professor Peter Wadhams, who leads a polar ocean physics group at the University of Cambridge, the Catlin team discovered that much of the Arctic ice is first-year ice rather than thicker, multiyear ice. That means it is susceptible to melting each summer and signals that the Arctic waters will be ice-free during the summer in perhaps 20 years, the professor indicated.

What stopped explorers including John Cabot, Jacques Cartier, Henry Hudson and Sir John Franklin from sailing through the Northwest Passage was pack ice. In 1906, Roald Amundsen succeeded, but it was not until 2007 that ice melt made such a voyage possible without an icebreaker.

Catlin sponsored the scientific survey to help answer questions about climate change, with the understanding that if climate change increases risks to people and property, the insurance industry will be looked at to respond. The jury is still out on the causes and effects of climate change, but it seems clear that change is occurring.

How should the insurance industry respond?