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MIAMI (Reuters)—The Colorado State University storm research team reduced its 2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast Tuesday, predicting that 10 tropical storms will form and four of those will strengthen into hurricanes.
The noted forecasting team founded by pioneering storm researcher William Gray had predicted on June 2 that the season would see 11 tropical storms, including five hurricanes.
Tuesday's forecast said two of the hurricanes would reach "major" status of Category 3 or higher, with sustained winds of more than 110 mph.
It marked the third time Colorado State's forecast has been reduced due to cooler-than-expected sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the development of El Niño conditions in the eastern Pacific.
El Niño is a periodic warming of sea waters that can dampen Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear, a difference in wind speeds at different altitudes that can tear apart nascent cyclones.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. government climate agency, said in early July that the eastern Pacific had demonstrated El Niño conditions.
The Colorado State researchers predicted last December that the season would produce 14 storms and that seven would reach hurricane strength. The forecast dropped to 12 storms, including six hurricanes, in April.
The first two months of the Atlantic season, June and July, did not produce any tropical storms or hurricanes. The season runs through Nov. 30.
Historically, the busiest part of the season is from late August to mid-October.