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Axa's incoming CEO faces entrance exam at investor day

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(Reuters) — Axa S.A.'s incoming chief executive, Thomas Buberl, will need to convince investors he has a plan to maintain profits in the face of falling yields when he meets investors on Tuesday.

The European insurance sector is seeing a change of faces at the top, with new CEOs also appointed at Zurich Insurance Group Ltd., Italy's Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A., Swiss Re Ltd. and Munich Reinsurance Co. All face similar challenges, from persistently low interest rates and slowing emerging markets in particular.

Axa, Europe's second-biggest insurer, has seen its share price tumble 14% this month as falling yields have driven down earnings' expectations for the sector, underperforming an 11% drop in the Stoxx Europe 600 insurance index .

Mr. Buberl, 43, said in March that he would address the future of life insurance and focus on growth areas such as emerging markets and health insurance.

He is also expected to announce an investment strategy for digital technologies and new cost-cutting measures, after the French insurer targeted €1.9 billion ($2.14 billion) in savings over 2011-2015.

Mr. Buberl takes the top job on Sept. 1 from Henri de Castries, who is stepping down after 17 years at the helm.

Mr. de Castries' team has mostly delivered on targets set under a strategic plan for 2011-15, although only after they were changed during the eurozone crisis.

"For Buberl, it will be an entrance exam. He should not underestimate the importance of the exercise," said Olivier Pauchaut, an analyst at Bryan, Garnier & Co.

"The financial community got used to Henri de Castries ... Those are some big shoes to fill."

Mr. Buberl is credited with restoring Axa's profitability in Germany and has solid experience of policyholders' behavior in a low-interest-rate environment, industry analysts say.

Like its peers, Axa is facing declining yields on its investments. Analysts forecast Axa's average annual earnings per share growth over 2016-2019 will be almost three times lower than for 2012-2015 at 4.7%, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Efficiency

Its bigger German rival Allianz S.E. last year targeted €1 billion ($1.13 billion) in annual productivity gains by 2018, which would be reinvested to help boost profitability.

Axa has invested more than €950 million ($1.07 billion) from cost savings since 2013 into digital tech.

"This is a significant investment, and the market would welcome the new CEO to clearly define the return strategy on digital," said JP Morgan's European insurance analyst Michael Huttner.

He expects Axa to announce a 12% to 15% target range for return on equity, versus 13% to 15% under the 2011-15 plan.

The appointment of co-deputy CEO Denis Duverne as chairman and the retention of Gerard Harlin as chief financial officer are signs of continuity at the group.

Under de Castries, Axa diversified by investing more than €5 billion ($5.63 billion) in high-growth markets such as China, Mexico, Nigeria and Poland, and Mr. Buberl is expected to retain that focus.

"They appear to have invested in markets where Axa can be big and markets are small. In these situations you do have some pricing power," said Mr. Huttner.

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