U.S. weather forecaster sees 90% chance of El Niño in summer
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(Reuters) — A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday said there was a 90% chance that El Niño conditions would continue during the Northern Hemisphere summer, an increase from last month's estimate of 70%.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center said in its monthly report that there was a more than 80% chance that El Niño conditions will last through 2015.
This is up from the CPC's April estimate for a 60% chance that El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere autumn.
El Niño is a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific that can lead to scorching weather across Asia and East Africa but heavy rains and floods in South America, roiling production of key foods such as rice, wheat and sugar.
The CPC's outlook comes after the Japan Meteorological Agency said on Tuesday that an El Niño pattern emerged in spring and is likely to continue into autumn.
Also on Tuesday, the Australia Bureau of Meteorology said an El Niño had formed and that models indicated a "substantial" weather event.
The CPC report said that by early May, "weak to moderate El Niño conditions were reflected by above-average sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific and by the corroborating tropical atmospheric response."
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