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Election changes outlook for risk

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Regardless of party affiliation, most people in the risk management sector would probably agree that there’s going to be a lot of risks to manage over the next few years as a result of recent developments.

The presidential election victory of Donald Trump, the ongoing Brexit saga and the prospect of nationalist parties gaining power or winning more influence in Europe all point to uncertain times ahead.

While many people have a jaded view of campaign trail promises, this time there really may be some substantive changes ahead, and change is often followed closely by increased risk.

In the U.S., there are numerous implications for employers to consider regarding Mr. Trump’s victory. As we report in this issue, the U.S. Supreme Court will likely be considering many business-related cases over the next few years, and a conservative Trump appointee will have a big influence on how those cases are decided.

Regulatory enforcement is also expected to soften under what’s expected to be an extremely pro-business administration, which is fine, but it will also put more of an onus on responsible employers to police their own actions. Less oversight from safety regulators, for example, may cut red tape, but it doesn’t cut workers compensation costs if workplace injuries increase.

Internationally, we could be in for quite a ride as the largest economy in the world looks to reverse long-term trends in free-trade agreements. All of which will have knock-on effects on logistics, supply chain management, manufacturing and other areas.

And in Europe, uncertainty over Brexit is causing leading insurers to publicly debate whether they will maintain their European headquarters in Britain or move elsewhere, which has ramifications for the status of the London market; and rising nationalism could have severe implications for the movement of people and political violence.

Meanwhile, one thing that won’t change is the most powerful political leader in the world will continue to be a man. While there are many more factors than gender to consider in selecting a president, as we celebrate the achievement so many outstanding women in this issue of Business Insurance, supporters of gender equality may take heart in the fact that even though Hillary Clinton didn’t win the election, more people voted for her than any other candidate. The ultimate glass ceiling is far from smashed, but it may be cracked.